To help correct your overconfidence we have a tabletop game launching. Back the game now on kickstarter! - https://ve42.co/ocpc
@TheBigBlueMarble Says:
Overconfidence has also led to some of the greatest advances and successes in history.
@SaltyJuan Says:
Overconfidence also leads to success. It’s not always bad, although it can be lots of the time. But overconfidence in the right scenario is unbelievably powerful.
@Scharkleaf Says:
generational thumbnail
@clxckworkss Says:
Insane reaction image
@cedrics7374 Says:
I know a colleague like that 😂
@_Dovar_ Says:
Intellectual humility is the ultimate realism.
@lastloke Says:
I'm 100% sure I love this guy. Keep it up dude
@brokenrecord3523 Says:
I'm not always confident I'm right, but I'm sure you're wrong.
@JOATMOFA Says:
DUNNING-KRUGER?
@AhmadAboulFarag Says:
I finally figured it out, you look a lot like rowan from VLDL
@MelomaniacMk4 Says:
2:34 Hannah being Hannah, she supported the argument with yet another brainstorming fact.
@jdc1957 Says:
" Always rule out the possibly you could be wrong "
POTUS
@jdc1957 Says:
" Never rule out the possibly .....
You could be wrong "
Dale Carnegie
@litning123 Says:
Most people think the most important "three little words" are "I love you." I've contended for decades (before D-K) the answer is, "I don't know."
For pedants: if you're incapable of accepting a commonly used contraction as one word, consider it in Mandarin: "Wo bu zhidao" (lit. "I not know").
@timd6613 Says:
This guy was the inverse Cramer of his time. Lmao.
@anthonymartinez4661 Says:
This thumbnail and Title got EXTREMELY High Potential
@twbcjhfstwbcjhfs Says:
Dunning Kruger: stupid people are confident.
@HelloHi-oj4ub Says:
It’s not about being confidently incorrect, people just pressed a poll 🤦♂️ (the irony)
@dsnied2433 Says:
so.... our leaders, those overconfident blow-hard know-it-alls, are the least qualified people to be leading. Anyone who has worked in a large company knows what I am talking about. (Said with only a slight bit of sarcasm) ;-)
@mrsheldon9134 Says:
For those who want to know, solar panels are around 20% efficient while plants are around 1% efficient.
@StephenMorris-y2m Says:
Cocaine
@casualhillenjoyer2441 Says:
I wonder how many Americans are 100% confident that: China is authoritarian. North Korea is a dictatorship of the delusional. Communism cannot work in reality. America has a free market system.
@Ohem1 Says:
It doesn't matter, someone's mom is wider.
@zecchinoroni Says:
I was SO confident that Australia is NOT wider than the moon. In fact, I thought anyone who believed that must be an idiot. Oops. 😆 Point proven.
@craccaraca Says:
2:27 hi astrum
@tobias3581 Says:
Almost 100% of fighters believe they can beat their opponents at 50% realistic chance
@MrOpinionCantSignIn Says:
The simple answer is NOT the need to feel superior or the 'I told you so'
.
The truth is that 'without confidence in decisions' (opinions) nothjng eould move forward
The first guy that built a shelter outside a cave was absolutely confident that he could, even though he likely failed 100 times ...
@marvinmcmurray761 Says:
And so with this game tie into the 37 quandary?
@SimonCooper-l6v Says:
Confidence over competence-is the American standard 🫡
- the giant orange is proof
@whaver-g9e Says:
7:11 WELL, SHOULDN'T IT BE CONSIDERED THAT WE ESTIMATE OUR CHANCES OF BEING CORRECT USING OUR OWN INTELLIGENCE? SO, CLEARLY, A PERSON WHO DOES NOT HAVE AN IDEA OF HOW FAR AND HOW MUCH THEY ARE LIKELY TO BE WRONG ALWAYS ESTIMATES IT IN THE RANGE OF 85%+. IN SIMPLER TERMS: 'PEOPLE ESTIMATE THEIR INTELLIGENCE USING THEIR OWN INTELLIGENCE.' IT IS LIKE USING A 10CM SCALE BELIEVING IT IS 1M AND USING IT TO MEASURE ITSELF.
@mikegamikega Says:
I have heard that Australia is as about as wide as the moon's *diameter*.
@X3R0theH3R0 Says:
From my experience there are 2 main reasons we as humans fall victim to this.
1 the less intelligent you are the more confident you are because you don't understand how little you know.
2 is that people who are confident are listened to (it doesn't matter that you're right if you can make anyone believe you)
This is why I have said for the last 30ish years the larger a group gets the lower the collective IQ drops, because as a group gets bigger the odds of a very confident very wrong person grows and the bigger the group the dumber that person could be.
Yes the smartest person in the group will get smarter as the group grows as well but they're smart enough to know that they could be wrong even when their right and Captain Dumb-ass is 100% sure about everything no mater how wrong they are.
I seems like a bad idea to tell smart people they should should be more confident, so I think that we need to train people to be more cautious of confident people.
Con-men got the name not by being confident, but by instilling confidence in their mark, the more confident you are, the less you see.
@JamesHood-s9x Says:
Wow
I love all of your videos
Please keep it going
@JamesHood-s9x Says:
All religions!
No
Assumptions are true!
@emma_em_11 Says:
The DUNNING-KRUGER EFFECT?? Also, the WISEST people KNOW that THEY KNOW NOTHING! (Socrates) In other words, THEY are WISE because THEY CAN ADMIT TO THEIR IGNORANCE on a subject! OVER-CONFIDENT people CAN BE INSECURE, it’s a FRONT, and NOT KNOWING is NOT something THEY CAN ADMIT TO! It’s actually a STRENGTH! It SHOWS INTEGRITY and LEADS to SEEKING OUT the REQUIRED KNOWLEDGE!
@RyanHoguePassiveIncome Says:
Is the movie Rogue Trader about this guy? 😅😅
@lazdawg1 Says:
Lord this is not what I needed in my journey to try to be more confident and decisive on a daily basis
@Aphobius Says:
Clown americans, why they are not saying that they don't know?
@BigBoldTaco Says:
Brother im overconfident all the time lol
@autumnwhistles-yc5xb Says:
FLASH WARNING!! (photosensitive seizure risk): 14:05-14:12 ; 17:33-17:39; 20:29-20:40; 22:25-22:33; 23:15-23:23. also 15:41-15:50 but not quite as intense. possibly warnings before this as well. 18:18-18:21 very quickly switching images but they're all quite similar to each other brightness-wise.
great video though!
@rahmath3305 Says:
How confident are scientists about the counting of stars in Milky Way and the trees?
@JambaJuke Says:
Is there somewhere I can buy this? I missed the kickstarter and I really want a copy of the game
@an_autodidact Says:
The more you know, the more questions you realise you can't answer.
This is why I don't trade or bet.
@IAmBehalf Says:
5 months late, so not sure if this comment will get seen by anyone, but does anyone know what the scale of 'confidence' actually means? At 9:50 he mentions that accuracy ranged from 0%-100%, while confidence varied over a much narrower range. But what is the correct answer for confidence if you are not sure?
For example, let's say I have absolutely no idea if the moon or Australia is wider. My hunch says "this wouldn't be a question if it wasn't Australia and they would have picked Russia", so I'm very slightly leaning towards Australia. Am I 51% confident? Or am I 2% confident?
Because I can see it is easy to get mixed up with being 50/50 about something. But to me, if I said I was 30% confident about something, it does feel like I'm implying that I'm 70% confident of the alternative choice. Even though, for sure, that can't be the case.
I think that statistically, I must be 2% confident that Australia is wider, right? But did the people who made up the data know this as well? It's also interesting because it was mentioned that people who said they were 90% confident turned out to be 75% accurate - but, if they are 90% confident as in "there is a 90% chance this answer is correct", rather than "I believe I get this answer correct 90% of the time", then isn't that actually 80% confident towards their answer? And that's much closer to 75%. So perhaps a lot of this comes down to misunderstanding, and those who said they were 90% confident were pretty much spot on.
I'm curious as to how other people interpreted the scale for confidence. Was your first thought that 50% confidence means you are taking a total guess? Or 0%?
@bethany8721 Says:
Seems wild to talk about overconfidence but not address segments of race, gender, and even financial stability.
@TristianDSF Says:
Waiting for ts to become a generational reaction image
@jaxyperson Says:
People are confident when they're wrong because, if they weren't confident, they wouldn't have been wrong.
It's just like the reason why the place you find something is the last place you look; it's in the last place you look because you stop looking after you find it.
@eL_m0 Says:
3:05 they were in spain, i can tell by the accent and the spanish Flag
@MrsMementoMary Says:
So what does it mean when someone is chronically UNDER-confident?
LATEST COMMENTS