Which experts have real expertise? This video is sponsored by Brilliant. The first 200 people to sign up via https://brilliant.org/veritasium get 20% off a yearly subscription.
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Chase, W. G., & Simon, H. A. (1973). Perception in chess. Cognitive psychology, 4(1), 55-81. – https://ve42.co/chess1
Calderwood, R., Klein, G. A., & Crandall, B. W. (1988). Time pressure, skill, and move quality in chess. The American Journal of Psychology, 481-493. – https://ve42.co/chess2
Hogarth, R. M., Lejarraga, T., & Soyer, E. (2015). The two settings of kind and wicked learning environments. Current Directions in Psychological Science, 24(5), 379-385. – https://ve42.co/Hogarth
Ægisdóttir, S., White, M. J., Spengler, P. M., Maugherman, A. S., Anderson, L. A., Cook, R. S., ... & Rush, J. D. (2006). The meta-analysis of clinical judgment project: Fifty-six years of accumulated research on clinical versus statistical prediction. The Counseling Psychologist, 34(3), 341-382. – https://ve42.co/anderson1
Ericsson, K. A. (2015). Acquisition and maintenance of medical expertise: a perspective from the expert-performance approach with deliberate practice. Academic Medicine, 90(11), 1471-1486. – https://ve42.co/anderson2
Goldberg, S. B., Rousmaniere, T., Miller, S. D., Whipple, J., Nielsen, S. L., Hoyt, W. T., & Wampold, B. E. (2016). Do psychotherapists improve with time and experience? A longitudinal analysis of outcomes in a clinical setting. Journal of Counseling Psychology, 63(1), 1. – https://ve42.co/goldberg1
Ericsson, K. A., Krampe, R. T., & Tesch-Römer, C. (1993). The role of deliberate practice in the acquisition of expert performance. Psychological Review, 100(3), 363. – https://ve42.co/anderson3
Egan, D. E., & Schwartz, B. J. (1979). Chunking in recall of symbolic drawings. Memory & Cognition, 7(2), 149-158. – https://ve42.co/chunking1
Tetlock, P. E. (2017). Expert political judgment. In Expert Political Judgment. Princeton University Press. – https://ve42.co/Tetlock
Melton, R. S. (1952). A comparison of clinical and actuarial methods of prediction with an assessment of the relative accuracy of different clinicians. Unpublished Ph.D. thesis, University of Minnesota.
Meehl, E. P. (1954). Clinical versus Statistical Prediction: A Theoretical Analysis and a Review of the Evidence. University of Minnesota Press. – https://ve42.co/Meehl1954
Kahneman, D. (2011). Thinking, fast and slow. Farrar, Straus and Giroux. – https://ve42.co/Kahneman
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Written by Derek Muller and Petr Lebedev
Animation by Ivy Tello and Fabio Albertelli
Filmed by Derek Muller and Raquel Nuno
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Produced by Derek Muller, Petr Lebedev, and Emily Zhang
Rediscovered this channel after a few years and boy are the videos very well made.
@starwarsfan4242 Says:
There are actually expert gamblers but not in roulette.
@Steve271089 Says:
so... when trump says he's an expert...
@user-rq-bellend Says:
1:27 The man who is alone in his own compartment. I knew this stuff would be unseen till today.
@user-cf6fu9gi3s Says:
Typing and sales are two places I relate to with the pattern recognition.When I first learned to type a certain way, I just kept my fingers on the same letters and would think my way through typing the next letter. I’ve noticed over the years that I’ve been typing this way that there’s many words that I type nearly instantaneously. 6 letter words that I type instantly, or 10 letter words that I type in two groups, the first 5, then the next 5 letters.Similar to sales, at first it was chaos for me interacting with many people of many ages and many cultures and many backgrounds, but all in the same industry. Over a number of cold calls I noticed categories of people, some people answer the phone really fast, some people answer the phone very monotone, some are very positive, some are very casual, some very professional. And I started
@TheBellBearingHunter69 Says:
3:42 - Yeah! I totally recognized this as π immediately! Yeah! 👀
@1302VL Says:
Kasparov was Armenian, not Azeri.
@louisjin6400 Says:
this reminds me about something a guy said about how your fear of falling to your death at 10,000 feet is like the same as 9,000 since same result
@lv4077 Says:
I was in a field that some would consider challenging requiring years of study and complex tasks,but very narrowly focused.With experience ,basically exposure to complex problems but in a narrow field,the diagnosis and solutions became so fast and routine it was as if no thought was even necessary.
@foodanarchy Says:
I'm reminded of merlin acknowledging the magic of the blacksmith.
@G70P Says:
Really interesting video. One extra layer I kept thinking about is motivation. Positive feedback clearly shapes behaviour, but it probably works differently depending on whether there is already some drive behind the action.
For example, the rat presses the button because it is hungry, while the human participates because there is a goal, curiosity, or purpose behind the study. So the feedback may reinforce the behaviour, but the initial motivation still matters.
I may be oversimplifying, but I wonder if interest or enjoyment also changes how efficiently we learn, because the brain treats some actions as more relevant when we care about the outcome. Narcisism sometimes? Not a criticism of the video — just the thought it triggered for me.
@cameraman55226 Says:
Most humans just find it hard to comprehend the idea of chance not changing for each independent attempt
@dpeyri Says:
growing is realizing all things in life are more than roullette not like chess. life is all luck. all's goin and that brick piece fault of nobody falls down head of someone. or stomach ache the exam's week or regular week. or your car got an issue average day or an important meeting day. all is luck and those who tihings made their lives are casino luckers... yet...
@dpeyri Says:
lol 5 seconds and only 3 pieces seems to me a monkey lab test. any average person should remember at least 5-6 pieces and i'm terrible looser at chess
@nils1543 Says:
https://youtu.be/5eW6Eagr9XA?t=223 Veritasium casually assuming all their viewers know at least 6 digits of pi... :D
@devilchild12323 Says:
Now lets examine drummers 😂
@TaniTawf Says:
6:07 that would be pretty useful if you could guarantee that. Just bet against the experts haha
@zTorrentiaLzzz Says:
I must say, that chess master isn’t a particularly good one or it was a bad test. Chess players now have done these tests and recall almost perfectly
@thomasmaughan4798 Says:
If I think hard on playing chess, I usually lose the game. But if I play fast and let something unconscious choose the moves, I often win.
@BeastMaster-xr6xy Says:
Exposer+Engagement= Skill exp
@AadPratim Says:
I feel like in the red and green button experiment, the rat specifically chose the green button only as it knew it would get a reward most of the time consistently, however the humans wouldn't recieve any reward, and so just guessed randomly as they had nothing to gain for it.
@friends4everaj906 Says:
What if you cooperated with your opponent to beat the system. One deflects and one attacks routinely. So 3 rounds of this, each player gets 10 points, whilst if they cooperated it would me 9 points
@성이름-g3q Says:
pain is the way to improve yourself
@mijnmanisklusser Says:
Kind of makes you wonder about the wall street types. They always need either insidr information or some other way to 'play' the system. If they don't their chances are the same as random guesses. So in this regard becomming an expert at trading only implies you know 'the ways' of the system on the psychological side, not the mechanics of the market itself. The old saying goes; the best way to predict the future is to make it.
@S3l3ct1ve Says:
A true expert is someone who hides his intentions and understands the pattern that his opponent is fallowing.
@ShortWaffless Says:
3:31 I think you also missed the point about pawn structure, different pawn structures correlate to different middlegame strategies. This is also why pawns are said to be "The Key of Chess" or something
@카이랄문 Says:
i read books like chunking. now i can explain why my reading speed is that fast. just, it's possible if the writing is grammatically possible
@rich8304 Says:
I was a ski instructor for 30 yrs and i could watch one turn and know what movement pattern to change,when i skied it felt like i was in slow motion.
@CreativeBotSam Says:
Oh I’m further into your video. Sure a grab back of stocks is very random. But price movements and chart patterns are not. And there are patterns- please research highly successful traders. Hedge funds have too much capital to be effective. Small traders can slip in and out. There absolutely are patterns it just takes so long to learn them
@RockerGo24 Says:
but when i recognize patterns...
@CreativeBotSam Says:
Chunking. And this is why it takes so long to become a profitable trader and most run out of money and motivation before they get there. That and the added element of emotions making you do things that aren’t logical.
@caitzs Says:
This is why I don't believe any of the AI doom predictions. (Or utopia predictions) We really have no idea because nothing like it has happened before. Even if you ask the AI themselves, they don't know either. They only know what humans have told them, they have no special knowledge that humans don't have. And LLMs arguably have even less because they have no conception of the 3D physical world. They can make interesting connections and insights, but those are only a hypothesis and have to be tested against the real world, they aren't a show of expertise by themselves.
@observer3065 Says:
Most enjoyable presentation from Veritasium for me so far. This topic matches so much of what I’ve found over decades of reading, listening and questioning to become better at… anything! Thanks.
@Meow_dasKatze Says:
"you don't only need to practice, but you need deliberate practice"
Me hearing this while practicing but not deliberately
@shaypah6924 Says:
this was only years ago. imagine making that video now with fx etc
@AndyMyron Says:
As an expert in human behavior, warfare, global economics and history, I predict that a certain stock is going up is about 50/50. 😁
The thing is that not even a person that had all those skills would be able to predict that. And I certainly can't.
Better you go to a fortune teller, fake or not doesn't matter, or just roll a dice.
And as some actually has power to influence what is happening then those doesn't even need to try to predict their own actions.
Alas... the game is rigged in favour of those that has influence.
The safest bet you can do is to play the game just like those that has the power of influence.
@AndyMyron Says:
Trying to predict human behaviour is probably the hardest.
Magnus carlsen has started playing chess doing "stupid" openings so his opponent can't recognize the game coming.
@Mr.PocketAivan Says:
Magnus views spatial structures in chess like coding algorithms. His mind is 3D actually
@arisantoso7574 Says:
👍
@brlyjo Says:
3:16 You can remember an entire sentence when you speak the language.
@cz941 Says:
10:27 I wonder if the outcome of the experiment with humans would so much differ from that with rats, if the human subject would get punish for the wrong choice as well (it doesn't need to be an electric shock, a financial penalty, let's say -10$ for each wrong choice, would work just as well).
@mikejenny667 Says:
Golf is a great example of this, if you ask a professional golfer after a round to go back and tell you every shot, yardage, club they hit, where the wind was, how they hit it, and how it felt they’ll be able to
@wantedglove123 Says:
So maybe you can never say that you are an expert but closer to being one.. just like getting to infinity ...as there is always a criteria to learn difficult things and being out of the comfort zone...so that never ends as there is always new things you have to learn atleast in the field I am interested in..that is tech...so you always keep moving towards the goal of being an expert but I guess you can just get close to it and never fully reach it and stop
@lodestar1380 Says:
"bro just do the tutorial every other month, it's not that hard."
@brunofaria9113 Says:
This is a very insightful video.
@cmmndrblu Says:
This is why, of the humanities, I love foreign languages. They're humbling, you get feedback, and you know you can always improve. I guess AI makes them less "useful" but I find they're still internally useful as something to challenge yourself at.
@imonlymed Says:
What makes an expert,
1) Having repeated attempts with feedback, without it, you're just as good as anyone else (for eg, sports analyst, where situations are always new)
2) Valid Environment, needs to be in a low volatile environment, where thing's are not random
3) Timely feedback, having delayed feedback makes improvement hard or impossible
4) Don't get too comfortable, having deliberate practice
@cougarbob1776 Says:
What about that little girl playing chess? What about child prodigies who haven’t seen thousands of hours? I guess they’re in a different category.
@idwolfshow1727 Says:
It's thinking you have the curse of knowledge, when the knowledge doesn't apply. The human condition is so complex... may empathy save us and may hate lose.
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